The following is a comparison of training volume in my build up for the 2011 IM France and Kona 2012. The figures are in hours and minutes and represent weekly averages over 30 weeks.
Swimming (Pool): France: 0:58 Kona: 1:04 (+11.5%)
Swimming (Open Water): France: 0:44 Kona :0:04 (-90.5%)
Swimming (Net Percentage Change): -79%
Conclusion: I’ll survive the swim but don’t expect to go any faster than in France.
Bike (Indoor): France: 0:57 Kona: 0:54 (-5.3%)
Bike (Road): France: 2:27 Kona: 4:05 (+66.9%)
Bike (Net Percentage Change): +61.6%
Conclusion: Hoping the extra bike emphasis in training will give me the most bang for my buck come race day.
Running: France: 2:03 Kona: 2:42 (+31.7%)
Conclusion: Provided I get my nutrition right, I should have a solid run as I’m coming in with a much stronger base of endurance than in France.
Average hours per week training: France: 7:09 Kona: 9:14 (+29.2)
Some other possibly relevant stats (30 weeks prior to race):
Resting Heart Rate: 46 - same
Sleep: 35 hours / week - same
Work: 45 hours / week - same
Commute: 10 hours / week - same
Longest Run: France: 2 hours 19 minutes Kona: 2 hours 45 minutes
Longest Swim: France: 3,800 meters Kona: 4,000 meters
Longest Bike: France: 5 hours 17 minutes Kona: 5 hours 42 minutes
I realize I’m geeking out on numbers here but why not take this a step farther and predict my swim, bike and run times in Kona by adjusting my IM France results by the percentage of change in training volume. Obviously this is a drastically flawed method but I’m doing it anyway.
France Swim: 1:27:15
Kona Swim Prediction by training volume: 1:33.29
Realistic estimate: 1:27:15
Even with limited training my swim speed should remain the same. If I were to spend more time in the water I would definitely get faster; conversely however, not spending time in the water won’t necessarily make me slower.
France Bike: 7:20:21
Kona Bike Prediction by training volume: 2:49:05 (ha!)
Realistic estimate: 6:00:00
That’s a conservative estimate assuming the wind will play a major factor. I should be able to go a few minutes quicker according to training data but let’s see what happens.
France Run: 4:45:04
Kona Run Prediction by training volume: 3:14:42
Realistic estimate: 4:30:00
This one is difficult to estimate since there are too many factors that could impact performance this late in the race.
France Overall: 13:46:47 (Including Transitions)
Kona Overall Prediction by training volume: 9:59:29 (Including Transitions)
Realistic estimate: 11:51:22
Ok so that was an interesting exercise in futility. Anything can happen on game day. Bring it on.